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Page;The spring thaw may have come a little late this year in Pyongyang. During a four-day trip to the North Korean capital at the end of May, former U.S. Defence Secretary William Perry received an unusually warm welcome.
Breaking with tradition, top North Korean leaders including Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly and No. 2 in the political hierarchy, and Kang Sok Ju, the first vice-foreign minister, rolled out the red carpet for Perry and his high-level delegation. Even more surprisingly, Perry met top hardline generals such as Defence Minister Kim Il Chol, Chief of the General Staff Gen. Kim Yong Chun and Gen. Cho Myong Rok, the chief political commissar of the armed forces.
Though Perry did not get his wish to meet Kim Jong Il, the nation's reclusive leader, analysts in Seoul say Perry's unprecedented access to the political and military elite may be a sign that the North is aware its relationship with the United States is at a turning point. Perry, now a presidential envoy, has been reviewing U.S. policy towards North Korea for six months and will report his findings to President Bill Clinton at the end of July. Many in Congress have called for a hardening of policy towards the country, and Perry's report is widely expected to contain a number of heavy sticks--as well as carrots. One possibility is that Perry may recommend lifting stringent U.S. economic sanctions on the North in exchange for an end to its missile and nuclear programmes.
Carrots, not sticks, were on display in Pyongyang, where Perry outlined a sweeping set of offers--endorsed by Japan and South Korea--that many analysts say it would be difficult for the North to refuse. Government officials in Seoul say the proposal states that if Pyongyang strictly adheres to the 1994 Agreed Framework, Japan and South Korea will follow through on an offer to fund construction of a $5 billion nuclear-power plant in the country. If the North discontinues its development, deployment and sale of missiles, it will receive an economic-aid package that includes the lifting of U.S. sanctions, according to officials in Seoul.
South Korean President Kim Dae Jung is also offering a programme to help restructure the North's ailing agricultural sector. The programme would move into action if Pyongyang follows up on a 1991 basic accord with Seoul to reopen arms-control talks and accepts periodic international inspection of its nuclear sites.
Analysts say the offers in effect guarantee the survival of Kim Jong Il's regime. "It's a package the North can't resist," says Suh Jae Jean, chief analyst with the Institute of National Unification in Seoul. It's also in the interest of South Korea, which doesn't want to have to cope with the collapse of North Korea and the cost of reunification.
It will take time, though, to assess whether Pyongyang is willing to play ball. Kang, Perry's chief interlocutor, was quoted by the official North Korean news agency as saying: "If relations between the two countries are to be improved, the U.S. should recognize the system and sovereignty of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and approach it on an equal footing and fundamentally withdraw its hostile policy" towards the country.
Analysts in Seoul say Kang's statement indicates the North is prepared to enter talks with the U.S., on certain conditions, on a range of issues including its nuclear and missile programmes. Speaking during a state visit to Moscow, President Kim gave a more positive assessment: "I see a high possibility that the North will hold a very constructive dialogue" on the proposal.
Kim's interpretation was given credence by the North's cooperation with a group of American nuclear specialists investigating a military facility at Kumchangri, northeast of Pyongyang. Just prior to Perry's talks with Kang, the team inspected an underground tunnel system at the core of U.S. allegations that the North violated the Agreed Framework. The U.S. State Department said the team found no traces of nuclear development in the huge tunnel network.
Further signs of change were evident in the handling of Perry's visit by North Korea's propaganda machine. The state media usually says little about visiting U.S. officials, but Perry and his entourage were shown on television riding the capital's underground rail system and touring Juche Tower, a symbol of North Korean pride. They also became the first senior U.S. officials to visit Mankyongdae shrine, the birthplace of Kim Il Sung, the North Korean dictator who died in 1994.
Behind the warm reception, say analysts, may lie fear. There is a growing feeling among North Korea watchers in Seoul that Kim Jong Il has been shaken by the strong U.S. action in Iraq and Kosovo. Communist Party publications in Pyongyang have recently blasted the U.S. for planning what they call a surgical air strike on North Korea. Kwak Tae Hwan, a North Korea watcher at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul, says Perry's reception in Pyongyang suggests "Kim is beginning to get worried that the U.S. response could get tough on him."
If the analysts are right and Kim senses an endgame is near, Perry's visit may prove a watershed in U.S.-North Korea relations. But after decades of confrontation and mistrust, analysts have learned that any thaw in North Korea can quickly turn back into a deep freeze
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